Corn Futures Weaken Again

As of 15:00 on July 29, the main corn 09 contract closed at 2302, down 17 points, or -0.73%. The daily decrease in positions was 11,000 lots, with total positions standing at 794,000 lots and trading volume at 528,000 lots, a decrease of 219,000 lots from the previous trading day.

Overnight, the decline in CBOT corn futures widened compared with the previous trading day. The most actively traded December corn contract finally closed down 1.37%, hitting a two-week low, and Asian electronic trading continued to operate weakly at low levels. Meteorological forecasts indicate that weather in the U.S. Midwest will be milder and will not pose a threat to crops. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its weekly crop report after the market close, showing that as of July 27, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. corn was 73%, in line with market expectations, down from 74% a week ago, but still the highest for the same period since 2016 and higher than 68% in the same period last year.

Domestically, the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures weakened again during the day. The main corn 09 contract continued to be suppressed by the 20-day moving average (MA20) on the daily chart. It broke below the key 2300 level intraday, hitting a low of 2299, but closed back above 2300. The 09 contract continued to see a reduction in positions, while the new-crop contracts saw a significant increase in positions. Daily trading and position data show that some positions in the 09 contract have begun to shift significantly to new-crop contracts.

Experts at a meeting yesterday stated that in the 2025/26 season, the per-ton planting cost of corn in Northeast China will decrease by 50-200 yuan, with the main cost range concentrated at 1,750-2,050 yuan/ton. Coupled with the relatively weak performance of the current spot market, it is speculated that funds are expecting downside room for new-crop contracts. Looking ahead, the old-crop market still needs to continue to pay attention to changes in spot sentiment. The expected level of carryover stocks will have an important impact on the connection between old and new crops, and during this period, emphasis should be placed on controlling the pace of operations.